Show voters by
UPDATE: The interactive now includes an option to adjust the electorate by gender.
If Georgians voted like they said they would in the AJC’s October poll, the state narrowly would go to Donald Trump, 44 percent to 42 percent, making it 20 years of Republican presidential victories in Georgia.
However, our poll showed the two candidates within the margin of error of 4.26 percentage points, suggesting that Georgia could be a toss-up this year.
So what would it take for Georgia to go blue again, as it did in 1992 during Bill Clinton’s first run, or to turn it back into a safely reliably red state, as it was during George W. Bush’s two victories?
This interactive allows you to build your own scenario to see which way Georgia might vote by adjusting the electorate by two factors: racial demographics and gender.
The AJC poll of likely voters shows that race is closely associated with voting preferences in Georgia. White likely voters favored Trump over Clinton 66 percent to 19 percent and non-whites favored Clinton over Trump 72 percent to 13 percent.
The top slider allows you to adjust the white and nonwhite shares of the electorate. The sliders under each candidate allow you to change the percentage support for each candidate from whites and nonwhites. Obviously, percentages have to add up to 100. So when you push one slider too high, the slider for the same race for the other candidate will go down to keep things realistic.
Gender is also a big factor in this election — both on part of the candidates and the voters. Our poll shows that 48 percent of women are backing Clinton for president, compared to only 37 percent for Trump. With the allegations of sexual assault against the Republican nominee, Georgia’s women voters are key to the outcome of this election.
As you vary the support, the map changes color based on how many points the leading candidate has over his or her competitor.
Data notes: Initial data comes from the AJC poll conducted by Abt SRBI between Oct. 17-20. Our calculations use the likely voter base of 839 voters with a margin of error of 4.26 percentage points. Voters are weighted on gender, race, education, ethnicity, and region, among other factors. Learn more about the AJC poll here.